I'm going to say something that might sound contrarian coming from someone who writes about saving money: Black Friday is not the best day to buy most things. The mythology around Black Friday — that it offers the deepest discounts of the year, that waiting for it guarantees the best price, that missing it means overpaying — is largely that: mythology.
Don't misunderstand. Black Friday does offer good deals on certain product categories. But the blanket assumption that everything is cheapest on the fourth Friday of November doesn't hold up against actual price data. And that assumption causes people to make two costly mistakes: buying things they don't need because "it's Black Friday," and waiting for Black Friday to buy things that were actually cheaper in July.
Let me walk through the data.
What Black Friday Gets Right
Based on price tracking data from CamelCamelCamel, Keepa, and my own six-month tracking experiment, Black Friday genuinely offers the best or near-best prices of the year in these categories:
Televisions. This is Black Friday's strongest category. TV prices drop 20-35% below their annual average, and many models hit their absolute yearly low during Black Friday week. The reason is simple: TV manufacturers and retailers use Black Friday as the primary clearing event for models that will be replaced by new lineups at CES in January.
Amazon devices. Echo speakers, Fire tablets, Ring doorbells, and Kindle e-readers reach their deepest discounts during Black Friday and occasionally Prime Day. Amazon uses its own hardware as a loss leader to get customers deeper into its ecosystem.
Major appliances. Refrigerators, washers, dryers, and dishwashers see genuine promotions from Home Depot, Lowe's, and Best Buy. These aren't the deepest discounts of the entire year (Presidents' Day often matches them), but the selection is widest during Black Friday.
Toys. Retailers compete aggressively on popular toys during Black Friday as parents shop for holiday gifts. Target, Walmart, and Amazon all run aggressive toy promotions, and prices on many items are genuinely at or near their annual low.
What Black Friday Gets Wrong
For the following categories, price tracking data shows that Black Friday offers middling or unremarkable deals compared to other times of year:
Clothing. End-of-season clearance in January and June/July typically offers deeper discounts than Black Friday promotions. A winter coat at 30% off on Black Friday will likely be 50-70% off in February clearance. Unless you need the coat for this winter specifically, waiting saves more.
Small kitchen gadgets. InstantPots, air fryers, and similar items go on sale frequently throughout the year — Prime Day, back-to-school promotions, random Amazon deal days. The Black Friday price is usually within $5-10 of the year's lowest, but it's rarely the absolute bottom.
Furniture. Presidents' Day, Memorial Day, and Labor Day are traditionally better for furniture deals. Black Friday furniture "sales" are often the same prices that were available two weeks earlier.
Groceries. Grocery prices are largely unaffected by Black Friday. The exception is Thanksgiving-specific items (turkey, cranberry sauce, pie ingredients), which are loss leaders during the two weeks before Thanksgiving.
Mattresses. Black Friday mattress sales exist, but Presidents' Day and Memorial Day consistently offer equal or better deals with better selection and less pressure.
The Pre-Black Friday Price Inflation Problem
Here's where it gets frustrating. Some retailers engage in a practice of raising prices in the weeks before Black Friday, then "discounting" to what is essentially the normal price. This makes the deal appear deeper than it actually is.
A 2023 investigation by consumer watchdog Which? found that 90% of products advertised on Black Friday in the UK had been available at the same price or cheaper in the preceding six months. While US data is less comprehensive, my own tracking found similar patterns on roughly 40% of Black Friday items I monitored.
The defense against this is simple: check the price history before buying anything on Black Friday. CamelCamelCamel shows Amazon price history for free. Google Shopping shows price trends across retailers. If the Black Friday price isn't clearly lower than the past three months' average, it's not a deal — it's marketing.
What Actually Drives the Deepest Discounts
Across most product categories, the deepest discounts come from clearance cycles, not sale events. When a retailer needs to move inventory to make room for new products, they mark prices down progressively until the product sells. These clearance events follow predictable seasonal patterns.
Winter clothing clearance in late January/February produces deeper discounts than any Black Friday promotion. Summer outdoor equipment in September. Last year's TV models in January/February. Spring merchandise in early summer.
The pattern is consistent: buy things when the store wants to get rid of them, not when the store is marketing them. Black Friday is a marketing event. Clearance is a logistics event. Logistics events produce better prices.
My Black Friday Strategy
I buy three categories on Black Friday: TVs (if I need one), Amazon devices (usually as gifts), and toys for the kids' holiday gifts. For everything else, I wait for the timing that actually produces the best price.
This means maintaining a running list of things I plan to buy, checking price history before purchasing, and having the patience to wait for the right window. It's less exciting than fighting crowds at 5 AM, but it consistently produces better outcomes.
The seduction of Black Friday is powerful because it creates urgency — "this deal is today only!" "limited quantities!" "doorbuster pricing!" That urgency is engineered to override the rational price-comparison process. When you check the data instead of trusting the marketing, you find that the urgency is often manufactured and the deal is often mediocre.
Buy what genuinely represents a yearly low price. Skip the rest. And enjoy your Thanksgiving without strategizing a 4 AM Walmart run for a product that'll be the same price in January.
